Meteorological uncertainty management for Flow Management Positions

  • Horizon 2020.
  • Call: H2020-SESAR-2019-2 (SESAR 2020 EXPLORATORY RESEARCH).
  • 1st May 2020 – 31st Oct. 2022.
  • Project No: 885919
  • Funding: €849.000


The framework for this project is the integration of meteorological forecast uncertainty information into the decision-making process for Flow Management Position (FMP). FMP is an operational position located in Area Control Centres (ACC) which serves as an interface between Air Traffic Control (ATC) and the Network Manager (NM). FMP monitors the level of traffic in ATC sectors, adjusts the value of capacity in view of unexpected events, and coordinates possible traffic flow measures with the ACC Supervisor and the NM when an excess of demand over capacity is detected. The presence of convective weather challenges this task, because it makes the sector demand not easy to predict and increases the complexity, thus reducing the sector capacity. The goal of this project is to provide the FMP with an intuitive and interpretable probabilistic assessment of the impact of convective weather on the operations, up to 8 hours in advance, coming from probabilistic forecasts of sector demand, complexity and capacity reduction, to allow better-informed decision making. The provision of a trustworthy forecast of the future sector demand and complexity and of a reliable estimation of the impact of the convective weather in the sector capacity will support the FMP in taking anticipated, appropriate, and timely tactical flow measures, which as a consequence will lead to a reduction of delays and an improvement of passenger journeys. 

High-level Messages

The benefits that the project is expected to bring can be expressed in the following messages:

FMP-Met will tailor multi-scale, multi-source convective weather information for FMP application.

FMP-Met will predict probabilistic aircraft trajectories using multi-scale convective weather information.

FMP-Met will forecast multi-sector demand and complexity under convective weather.

FMP-Met will translate convective weather forecasts into predictions of reduced airspace capacity.

FMP-Met will produce guidelines for the use of probabilistic forecasts for FMP application

Work Packages

  • WP1: Project management
  • WP2: Concept of operations
  • WP3: Meteorological data processing
  • WP4: Trajectory prediction
  • WP5: Forecast of multi-sector demand
  • WP6: Forecast of airspace capacity reduction
  • WP7: Validation of methodologies
  • WP8: Results dissemination and communication