The FMP-Met project will attend the 10th International Conference on Research in Air Transportation at the University of South Florida in Tampa. Researchers from the project will present the paper entitled “Probabilistic Analysis of Air Traffic in Adverse Weather Scenarios“.

Authors:

• Universidad Carlos III de Madrid: Eduardo Andrés, Javier García-Heras, Daniel González, Manuel Soler
• University of Zagreb: Tomislav Radišić, Petar Andraši
• Universidad de Sevilla: Alfonso Valenzuela, Antonio Franco, Juan Nunez-Portillo, Damián Rivas

Abstract:

The presence of convective cells makes sector demand irregular and not easy to predict, increasing traffic complexity and reducing sector’s capacity. In this paper we present a novel, integrated trajectory predictor, which considers multiple sources of meteorological uncertainty at different temporal and geographical scales together with take-off uncertainty. The trajectory predictor is used to calculate the demand, presenting a multi sector traffic assessment of demand (and complexity under convective weather. The combination of probabilistic demand) the assessment of complexity due to weather constitutes the groundwork for the creation of a tool that will enable FMPs a better understanding of complexity in adverse weather conditions.